Destiny 2
Bungie
We are now one week past the news that Bungie was ceasing development on Destiny 2 after a large June 9 update, and there are a lot of big feelings on the internet about how that has gone down. Not to add to the emotion, but I have new information about all of this, spanning from when things really started to go wrong with Destiny 2, what role Marathon has here and pitches for ultimately rejected concepts about how to continue things forward.
From my sources, here’s a breakdown of what I’ve learned,
- There began to be discussions and scenarios planned after Edge of Fate in terms of where Destiny 2 could or should go from there, because that expansion underperformed expectations.
- Those discussions got way more serious when Renegades did even worse and didn’t change sales or retention trajectory.
- The scenarios discussed were about what the future of Destiny 2 would look like, if it were sticking with the new two expansions, two updates model or something else. The decision to actually kill the game was not made after Edge of Fate or something that far back. It was earlier this year, as previously reported.
Destiny 2
Bungie
- One idea was scrapping the two-expansion model and going back to one big expansion again and renaming the game “Destiny Infinity.” The goal there was a kind of relaunch as opposed to doing a true Destiny 3 to kickstart momentum.
- Destiny 3 was considered, as ever, but things didn’t swing that way. My sources have no belief it is coming at the moment.
- With all the options on the table, the main problem was that any and all of it cost a ton of money. Talking to multiple industry people, Jason Schreier’s recent theorizing that building a Destiny 3 from scratch could cost $500 million, before marketing and post-launch support, is not unreasonable in the current state of the industry.
- As for Marathon, “if the game made a billion dollars, would Destiny 2 have a chance to continue? Sure, maybe,” but no one was sitting there on launch day deciding if its performance would kill Destiny 2 or not.
- Unfortunately, neither the petition nor the planned login surge on the 9th has any chance of reversing the recent decision or greenlighting Destiny 3, as well-intentioned as they may be.
- From here, Bungie needs to land a pitched game and get something in the works. There’s no info on exact metrics Marathon needs to hit to become a “win.” All eyes are on season 2 and the free week, but the console audience has proven they “really do not care for this thing,” so the needle is not expected to be moved there.
Destiny 2
Bungie
So, in summary:
- Edge of Fate was when things began to really wobble, and Renegades is when the alarm sounded.
- While multiple ideas, including a relaunch or sequel, were discussed, everything was deemed to cost too much.
- Marathon’s success or failure was not the tipping point of all of this, though it is still a factor in the years past as part of how Destiny 2 shrunk so much with so many resources diverted.
Well, not great to read, I imagine, and certainly not anything to lift spirits. There will be a lot of talk about “what could have been” with even something like a Destiny Infinity to continue on the series, but cost and risk were alleged to be too high for any of these continuation scenarios, especially with longer-term Marathon development planned. So, here we are.
I’ve asked Bungie for comment and will update if I hear back.
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