Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is running ahead of where public polling placed her during her 2020 reelection campaign, even as a New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena survey finds Democrat Graham Platner narrowly leading in Maine’s 2026 Senate race.
The poll, conducted June 19-26 among 608 likely Maine voters, found Platner leading Collins 49 percent to 47 percent. The Times described the two-point edge as too small for polls to measure reliably, and the survey had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
Graham Platner, Democrat candidate for U.S. Senate, speaks at a campaign event Friday, June 5, 2026, in Bar Harbor, Maine. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)
Burgess Everett, Semafor’s congressional bureau chief, noted on X that Collins’s 47 percent showing in the new poll is higher than any public 2020 poll listed by RealClearPolling before she ultimately won reelection.
The RealClearPolling list from Maine’s 2020 Senate race showed Collins trailing Democrat Sara Gideon in every poll listed before Election Day, with Collins’s support ranging from 38 percent to 44 percent. The listed surveys showed Collins at 42 percent in the final Emerson poll, 43 percent in a late October Colby College poll, 40 percent in a Pan Atlantic poll, 43 percent in a Bangor Daily News poll, 44 percent in a New York Times/Siena poll, and between 38 and 43 percent in the remaining listed surveys.
Collins ultimately defeated Gideon by 51.0 percent to 42.4 percent, an 8.6-point margin.
The new Times poll found Collins at 47 percent against Platner, higher than every public 2020 survey listed in the RealClearPolling table, while Platner’s 49 percent matches Gideon’s showing in the 2020 Times/Siena poll listed in the RealClearPolling table.
The Times noted that Collins has a history of defying polling expectations. In 2020, pre-election surveys suggested she would lose by about three to four points, but she won by nine.
The survey also found that Collins continues to hold advantages over Platner on several personal and issue measures. Sixty-six percent of likely voters said Collins has good character, compared with 44 percent who said the same of Platner, while 61 percent said Collins has the right kind of moral values, compared with 45 percent for Platner. Forty-seven percent said Platner is too extreme, compared with 34 percent who said that of Collins.
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On issues, likely voters said Collins would do a better job bringing money and resources to Maine by a 61 percent to 34 percent margin, while Platner led Collins on being an independent voice, 50 percent to 43 percent, and doing what is best for ordinary Mainers, 50 percent to 46 percent.
The poll comes after weeks of scrutiny over Platner’s past conduct and controversies. The Times reported that Platner, an oysterman who has never held elected office, won the Democrat nomination despite reports about offensive online posts, a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol, and his treatment of women. More than 90 percent of likely voters said they had heard about the controversies, and about 30 percent of Platner supporters said the reports had raised questions about whether or not they could support him.
The Republican National Committee released a video Friday highlighting Democrats struggling to answer questions about Platner, including whether or not they support him, if he has the character to serve in the Senate, and whether or not they would campaign with him.
Graham Platner, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, speaks to an overflow crowd outside a campaign event Sunday, June 7, 2026, in Portland, Maine. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)
Among the Democrats highlighted, Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) said Platner has “a lot of issues” but added that Democrats need the Senate; Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) said Maine voters need to make the call; Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) said the allegations involved behavior that was hard to stomach but framed the race as a choice; and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) reaffirmed his endorsement of Platner.
Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) also criticized Democrats for continuing to support Platner, arguing that party leaders had excused his controversies because he represented the party’s progressive wing. President Donald Trump, asked by Breitbart News earlier this month about Democrats losing ground on the generic congressional ballot, said Republicans were “coming up strong” because voters were seeing “lunatics” on the ballot, including “the guy in Maine with the swastika.”
Both parties view Maine as central to the battle for control of the Senate. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, meaning Democrats must defend all of their seats and flip four more to win control in November. Of the six Republican-held Senate battleground states, Maine is the only one that voted against Trump in 2024.
