With mortgage rates still relatively low, despite a recent jump in interest rates, and a top-down push for affordability, Housing Starts for March soared while the more forward-looking Building Permits disappointed, unexpectedly plunged.
Housing starts soared 10.8% MoM in March (far more than the -0.4% expected drop) while Permits plunged 10.8% MoM (and worse than the -0.4% decline expected)…
This pushed the SAAR totals for Starts to 1.502 million, far above the 1.390 million expected, and the highest since Dec 2024, but Building Permits fell to their lowest since Aug 2025
Under the hood, Single-Family Starts jumped 9.7%, the most since Feb 2025, and Multi-Family Starts soared 9.6% MoM, while Permits did a mirror image, plunging 23.5% MoM (biggest drop since June 2023) and Single-Family permits plunged 3.8%
The lowest mortgage rate since Aug 2022 (aside for the modest Iran war jump) likely helped spark homebuilder appetite to start building, even if it did precisely the reverse with permits.
Overall, the report was a mixed bag overall, and tough to project given the impact of surging oil which translated into even higher yields on the mortgage rates for the foreseeable future.