Kathy Hochul leads Republican Bruce Blakeman 47% to 43% in a newly reported New York governor survey—a low-single-digit edge that would force Democrats to take this race very seriously if anything close to it appears in other polling.
The poll was sponsored by Strong and Safe, a pro-Blakeman super PAC. Red Oak Strategic conducted the survey for that PAC, which gives the poll a clear political interest rather than the independence of an unaffiliated survey.
Hochul’s same-day message on data-center policy shows how she is connecting her governing record to local power costs and the affordability concerns hanging over this race.
We can lead in innovation while protecting our communities.
We’re sitting down with local leaders in the Finger Lakes to talk about New York’s nation-leading framework for responsible data centers.
Join me live: https://t.co/Zhcvv9LaeB
— Governor Kathy Hochul (@GovKathyHochul) July 29, 2026
Trending Politics reported the results on July 29. The poll found Hochul at 47%, Blakeman at 43%, and another 10% of registered voters undecided.
The survey questioned 2,000 registered New York voters from July 7 through July 12 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
Those numbers are undeniably newsworthy, but they are nowhere close to the full polling picture. A Siena survey conducted June 17 through June 23 among 1,120 registered voters gave Hochul a commanding 52% to 32% advantage.
Spectrum News reported that Siena result on July 27, just two days before the much closer Red Oak numbers were reported.
The broader average also remains firmly in Hochul’s favor. RealClearPolling currently lists Hochul at an average of 52.3% and Blakeman at 35.0%, giving the Democrat a 17.3-point advantage.
So no, one survey commissioned by a pro-Blakeman super PAC does not establish that this race is tied. It does not prove Hochul is losing, and it should not be treated as the settled state of the contest.
What it does provide is a detailed look at the political weaknesses Hochul’s opponents believe they can exploit—and some of those underlying numbers are even more uncomfortable for the governor than the ballot test.
The Red Oak survey reportedly measured Hochul at 38% favorable and 58% unfavorable. Her job performance came in at 39% approval and 56% disapproval.
Only 33% said Hochul deserves another term, while 61% wanted someone else. That is a severe verdict on an incumbent’s record within this particular sample.
The poll also found 57% saying New York is on the wrong track, compared with 33% who believed the state is moving in the right direction.
Blakeman performed especially well among independents in the survey, leading Hochul 54% to 33%. He also received support from 83% of Republicans.
Again, sponsorship matters here. A campaign-aligned poll may be designed or released to emphasize the strongest available case for its preferred candidate, which is exactly why the sharp conflict with Siena and the current average cannot be brushed aside.
Still, Hochul has seen a New York governor’s race become genuinely close before. She defeated Republican Lee Zeldin in 2022 by 52.8% to 47.1%, a final margin of 5.7 points.
That result does not validate the new Red Oak poll. It does, however, show why Republicans will not automatically concede that a wide Democratic advantage in earlier polling guarantees an easy finish.
Hochul enters the campaign’s final stretch with a major financial advantage. Spectrum News reported that she had more than $21 million in cash on hand, while Blakeman had raised more than $6 million.
Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, also has the endorsement of President Trump. New York Republican chairman Ed Cox expects the president may campaign in the state before the November 3 election, according to Spectrum News.
The Republican is building his campaign around affordability, taxes, public safety, and Hochul’s record. The Red Oak findings on job approval, the direction of the state, and support for another term fit directly into that argument.
Hochul is also promoting current policy achievements as she works to put her own record at the center of voters’ attention.
The days of social media companies putting profits ahead of young people are over.
The SAFE for Kids Act makes New York’s nation-leading online protections permanent.
Our kids’ mental health isn’t for sale. pic.twitter.com/2ivSwHj1O1
— Governor Kathy Hochul (@GovKathyHochul) July 28, 2026
That is the central political fight now taking shape. Hochul wants voters focused on what her administration says it is delivering, while Blakeman wants the election to become a referendum on whether New Yorkers feel safer, more prosperous, and more confident about the state’s direction.
The 10% undecided in the Red Oak survey also matters. Even within the poll showing the closer race, a meaningful share of voters had not selected either candidate.
And because the reported four-point result stands so far apart from Siena’s 20-point result and the 17.3-point RealClearPolling average, the next independent surveys will carry far more weight than partisan celebration over a single release.
Conservatives have every reason to examine Hochul’s approval, favorability, and reelection numbers closely. They reveal clear openings for an argument against her record, even if the ballot result ultimately proves to be an outlier.
The responsible conclusion is straightforward: Hochul remains ahead, the broader public polling shows a much larger advantage, and this Republican-sponsored survey alone cannot define the race. A 47%-43% result nevertheless gives Blakeman’s campaign a concrete reason to press forward—and gives Hochul one more reason not to take New York voters for granted.
This is a Guest Post from our friends over at WLTReport. View the original article here.
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