A newly released study commissioned by the national gambling regulator of Germany suggests that most online gambling in the country now happens on licensed platforms, with illegal operators representing less than a quarter of the market.
Research published Monday (March 16) by the Joint Gambling Authority of the Länder, known as the GGL, estimates that 22.97% of Germany’s online gambling activity involves unauthorized or unregulated providers. The remaining 77.03% flows through companies operating legally under the country’s regulatory framework.
The study, titled “Investigation of the black market and the channeling of online gambling based on a survey of gamblers,” was commissioned by the regulator and conducted by the Blockchain Research Lab. Researchers used player surveys to estimate how much gambling activity takes place on licensed platforms compared with illegal websites.
Officials at the GGL say the results reinforce their long-standing belief that Germany’s regulatory system captures the majority of online gambling activity.
“The scientifically calculated channelization rate confirms our previous assumptions about the extent of the black market,” said Ronald Benter, board member of the GGL. “The results support the approach of evidence-based regulation within the framework of the State Treaty on Gambling 2021.”
Study suggests online gambling occurs mostly on legal sites in Germany
Regulators say the research also backs up the way German authorities already estimate the scale of illegal gambling. The GGL relies on a reference-value analytical model designed to gauge activity taking place outside licensed platforms.
According to the study’s authors, that approach appears suitable for estimating the size of the black market, with results broadly aligning with earlier assessments produced by the regulator.
“We are discussing with the federal states to what extent the results of this study may make adjustments to the legal requirements necessary,” Benter said. “In addition, the results of the currently ongoing study on player protection on the internet remain to be seen.”
The findings arrive as other jurisdictions report greater difficulty steering players toward regulated platforms. A recent analysis of the U.S. market found that roughly 74% of online gambling revenue flowed to offshore operators rather than legal sites. In Sweden, a report by state-owned betting operator ATG indicated many players still use unlicensed platforms, raising questions about how effectively the regulated system channels users.
Dutch authorities have also warned that illegal online gambling appears to be gaining ground. The Netherlands Gambling Authority, known as KSA, recently cautioned that stricter rules on licensed operators could unintentionally push players toward unregulated alternatives.
Despite Germany’s comparatively strong channelization rate, officials say combating illegal gambling remains a central priority.
The GGL says enforcement targets the full ecosystem supporting unlicensed gambling operations. That includes game suppliers, operators, payment services, marketing partners and the digital infrastructure used by illegal platforms.
“Our measures will also be reflected in market shares in the medium term,” Benter said. “The fight against illegal online gambling is a marathon, not a sprint.”
The regulator said cooperation with licensed operators and European authorities will be essential to limiting the reach of illegal platforms. Officials are also encouraging licensed companies to make greater use of regulatory tools intended to keep players within the legal market.
The study’s results were scheduled to be presented March 17 during the 23rd Gambling Symposium hosted by the University of Hohenheim’s gambling research center, where Blockchain Research Lab researcher Dr. Fred Steinmetz is expected to outline the study’s methodology and findings.
“A reliable data basis is decisive for effective regulation of the gambling market,” Benter said. “That is why we will continue to systematically incorporate scientific findings into our work in the future.”
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