New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D) is taking the Democrat Party establishment head-on in the greatest test of his political clout since his unlikely election victory in November.
Maryland and Utah join New York in holding primaries Tuesday, with South Carolina holding primary runoffs.
But most political prognosticators are fixated on New York, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), whose political fortunes hang on maintaining control over their evolving, increasingly radical Democrat caucuses.
Mamdani, a democratic socialist, has endorsed three candidates for the House of Representatives, each cut from his Marxist cloth and representing a significant challenge to the power structure that enabled Jeffries and Schumer to rise to the upper echelons of party power.
In the Seventh Congressional District, Mamdani endorsed New York State Assemblymember Clair Valdez over Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, who is the preferred replacement for outgoing Rep. Nadia Velazquez (D-NY).
But Mamdani isn’t simply endorsing against the candidate preferred by outgoing Democrat representatives. He is taking on incumbent Democrats too.
In the Tenth Congressional District, Mamdani endorsed his former rival for mayor, Brad Lander, over Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY).
Polls show Goldman, who made his career opposing Trump, even serving as an impeachment manager, running behind Lander, who has framed Goldman as not radical enough for an evolving party.
The race has turned ugly, with a New York coffee shop going viral the weekend before the primary for denying Goldman entry due to his support for Israel.
In the Thirteenth Congressional District, Jeffries ally and incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat is fighting back a challenge from Mamdani-endorsed Darializa Avila Chevalier.
A community organizer from Harlem, Chevalier’s past statements and positions have generated controversy as she’s rocketed up the polls – she apologized for posting “fuck Kamala Harris,” which contributed to Mamdani clarifying that he was not aware of all her past positions, while maintaining his support.
In Washington, Espaillat leads the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, a powerful block in the House Democratic Caucus that is facing an erosion of race and ethnicity-based power centers as progressives bring a broader class warfare focus to Washington.
Other New York Democrat primaries hold intrigue.
The Twelfth Congressional District democrat primary is as notable for who may not survive as who might prevail.
New York Assemblymembers Alex Bores and Micah Lasher are projected to emerge atop the pack of a crowded race to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY). But former Republican (and wannabe Trump administration official) George Conway, who left the party after a painfully public, political brouhaha with then-wife and Trump loyalist Kellyanne Conway, appears likely to finish no higher than third. And Jack Schlossberg, the outspoken and flamboyant Camelot scion and son of Caroline Kennedy, has struggled to turn his outlandish social media clout into a base of support.
But the three races in which Mamdani is taking on the leaders of the Democratic establishment will be the most instructive.
Many traditional coalitions, power centers, and sacred cows of the party could be history by Tuesday evening, or if the results are an indication, within an election cycle or two.
Docile race-based coalitions, long the most reliable centers for support for House Democratic leadership, could take another, perhaps near-fatal, blow. Support for Israel, once a given for Democratic politicians, could complete its transformation to albatross. Even leading the political – and legal – effort to defeat Trump may no longer be enough for the new class of ascendant radicals birthed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s unlikely primary victory over incumbent Democrat Rep. Joe Crowley – then seen as the most likely successor to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).
Ironically, with a base rapidly changing through the unchecked migration it championed for decades, old-guard Democrats may now be facing the end of their political control, sowing the seeds of their own destruction.
Who this party could possibly elevate as its nominee for president in 2028 is anyone’s guess – but the ramifications are monumental.
Polls close at 7:00 p.m. ET in South Carolina, 8:00 p.m. ET in Maryland, 9:00 p.m. ET in New York, and 10:00 p.m. ET in Utah.
This story will be updated throughout the evening.
UPDATE 10:00 p.m. ET:
The White House is beginning its outreach to Democrat voters who are disaffected with the leftward lunge of their party, which is undeniable after tonight’s election results.
White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller on Fox New’s Hannity presented an insightful, nuanced take on the evolution of the two-party system and Democrats’ descent into radical ideology, stating Trump’s desire to appeal to Democrats who want to save their country.
“Ultimately, what President Trump is doing, and what he is leading, is an America First movement that says we need Democrats to come vote for us, to leave that insanity, because ultimately thats just a death knell for America,” he said.
UPDATE 9:50 p.m. ET:
Brad Lander was on-air with CNN when the network projected he would defeat incumbent Rep. Dem Goldman.
“I do think it says Democratic voters want to reset the U.S. relationship with Israel,” Lander said of the Mamdani-endorsed candidates’ election night success. “They don’t want a foreign policy that compromises anyone’s humanity.”
UPDATE 9:45 p.m. ET:
Rep. Espaillat is making his Dominican roots a cornerstone of his reelection to Congress, MS NOW’s Michael Schnell reports.
The chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus is throwing a party that, while not exactly a rager, seems more at home in the Caribbean than the East Coast of the U.S.
Despite his Dominican bona fides, the incumbent is down to the Mamdani-backed Chevalier by almost 2.5 points with 78.6 percent of the projected vote in.
UPDATE 9:40 p.m. ET:
If you’re unfamiliar with Claire Valdez, you’re probably not a Democrat congressman running for reelection. Every single candidate carrying the flag for the Democrats must answer why they are marching alongside Valdez, who is now all but assured to win in November and head to Washington.
The champion of the new guard of Democrat politicians has called for a Trans Bill of Rights, national rent control, and even unlimited refugees – much further than even Kamala Harris went on one of the issues that sunk her 2024 campaign.
Tonight her “greatest hits” is another significant step closer to becoming Democrat Party orthodoxy.
UPDATE 9:35 p.m. ET:
In New York’s Twelfth District, as expect, Micah Lasher and Alex Bores are ahead of the pack, with Lasher currently up by just over four percent.
But wow, the story might be further down.
Jack Schlossberg, who squandered the political capitol from being the grandson to a popular president to instead gain notoriety for being creepy and obnoxious online, is in a distant third place at just over ten percent.
But the amusing story is even further down (on most websites, one must click “view more candidates” to see).
George Conway, one of the most notorious sufferers of Trump Derangement Syndrome, is pulling up the rear in an astounding fifth place with only 6.2 percent of the projected vote. The tally is an embarrassment for a man who debased himself at every turn, losing his family and even moving to Manhattan solely to run for office under the mantle of a party that never wanted him.
UPDATE 9:25 p.m. ET:
There we go. Valdez will defeat Reynoso, NBC News projects. She has 56.7 percent of the projected vote with over 55 percent in.
Mamdani has now secured two victories, with one more possible.
UPDATE 9:17 p.m. ET:
With almost a third of the projected vote in, Espaillat and Mamdani-endorsed Chevalier are neck-and-neck in the Thirteenth District. Espaillat is up just four-tenths of a point.
But in the Seventh District, with 45.4 percent of the projected returns in, the Mamdani-endorsed Valdez is up big, with 55.7 percent over Antonio Reynoso’s 35.5 percent. We might see this race get called soon.
UPDATE 9:11 p.m. ET:
NBC News projects Brad Lander to defeat incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman – and it doesn’t appear to be close.
With just over a third of the projected votes tabulated, Lander has 62 percent to Goldman’s 37.8 percent, a stunning defeat for an incumbent who positioned himself as one of the most visible opponent’s to Trump’s agenda – and his freedom.
UPDATE 9:07 p.m. ET:
Polls closed in New York minutes ago. As Henry Olsen points out, Mamdani’s three picks in House races lead in the early vote, an encouraging sign for the Mayor’s takeover attempt.
UPDATE 8:59 p.m. ET:
Disgraced former Rep. Jamal Bowman, who was formally censured after pleading guilty for pulling a Capitol complex fire alarm that delayed a House vote and later lost his primary, is supporting Chevalier over Espaillat. The race is on American soil for a position in American government yet has turned into a tribal squabble between different imported ethnic communities that make up large chunks of the Thirteenth District’s population.
Chevalier and her supporters like Bowman have complained that an Espaillat advisor claims Chevalier wants to replace Dominicans in the district with Haitians and Muslims.
UPDATE 7:56 p.m. ET:
Attorney General Alan Wilson will win the Republican runoff for the governor’s nomination, the Associated Press projected at 7:26 p.m. ET. His opponent, Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette led after the primary, in no small part due to President Donald Trump’s endorsement. But in the runoff after the crowded field was winnowed to two, Wilson got out to a big lead. Trump soon co-endorsed, throwing his support behind Wilson as well.
Bradley Jaye is Political Editor for Breitbart News. Follow him on X/Twitter and Instagram @BradleyAJaye.