Scandals abound as voters in Florida, Alaska, Wyoming, and California choose between felons, underwear models, and even disgraced former congressmen Tuesday.
Many of the most dramatic races are in the Sunshine State, where mid-decade redistricting has created new lines and forced a handful of Democrats to run in new districts.
The marquee race is the Republican gubernatorial primary, where Rep. Byron Donalds has consistently led other candidates. An early recipient of President Donald Trump’s endorsement, Donalds will try to flex his muscles with a double digit victory.
The most interesting race might be in Florida’s 19th Congressional district. Trump endorsed Catalina Lauf last week, who previously ran unsuccessfully in two different Illinois districts.
The other top contender is Jim Schwarzel, the only high-polling candidate actually from the district. The owner of a conservative radio station in the district, Schwarzel is endorsed by Reps. Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise.
Other contenders include former Rep. Madison Cawthorn who was defeated by Rep. Chuck Edwards after scandals (Edwards recently canceled his reelection bid after scandals of his own), former Rep. Chris Collins (NY) who was pardoned by Trump after pleading guilty to insider trading, and John Strand, a J6er who had his case overturned by SCOTUS and is an underwear model.
Scandalized Rep. Cory Mills is behind in polls to local newscaster Ryan Elijah, who is hoping to unseat the congressman and might even do so by double digits, according to some polling.
Mills is under an ethics investigation for domestic violence and has faced allegations of affairs. He has been accused of marrying his wife, a Muslim, in a church tied to terror by an imam associated with the World Trade Center bombing, as well as shady financial dealings in the Middle East with his weapons company, among other scandals.
Democrats have drama of their own. Democrat Socialist of America (DSA) candidate Oliver Larkin is battling Democrat Rep. Jared Moskowitz, a relative moderate and supporter of Israel – an increasing outlier in Democrat politics.
Trump won this new district by nine points, and the winner of the crowded GOP primary would likely rather face Larkin.
Democrat Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is running in a new majority black district, upsetting hew black colleagues in Washington and forcing Hakeem Jeffries to awkwardly offer support to her without an endorsement. She is running against 2 Live Crew rapper “Uncle Luke” Luther Campbell and former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who retired earlier this year after scandals. Other black candidates in the race mean the black vote will be split, likely giving the advantage to Wasserman Schultz.
There is significant intrigue on the other side of the nation in the Last Frontier, where Alaska’s ranked choice voting and shenanigans from shady groups with deep pockets could upend what would otherwise be straightforward elections.
Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is running not only against former Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola but Republican Dan Sullivan – no relation, despite their identical name. The non-Senator Sullivan is a Democrat who has admitted to attending a No Kings protest and whose filing papers included metadata trying him to a Peltola consultant.
The top four candidate regardless of party advance to the general election in November, but the breakdown of Tuesday’s results could shed light on the direction of that race.
Republicans have touted polling showing Sen. Sullivan up, while leftwing groups have shown polling with Peltola leading.
But Peltola began a staff shakeup in the days before the election, which included demoting her campaign manager – rarely a sign of confidence.
Back in the contiguous 48, Californians will select a replacement for disgraced former Rep. Eric Swalwell who will serve for the remainder of the Congress.
And in Wyoming, Rep. Harriet Hageman has ridden an early Trump endorsement into a likely victory in the GOP senatorial primary.
Polls close in Florida at 7:00 p.m. ET in most of the state and 8:00 p.m. ET in the panhandle, 9:00 p.m. ET in Wyoming, 11:00 p.m. ET in California, and 1:00 a.m. ET in Alaska.
UPDATE 9:01 p.m. ET:
Polls are closed in Wyoming. If the Cowboy State is near as efficient as Florida, expect race calls soon.
Florida has come a long way since the hanging chad!
UPDATE 8:57 p.m. ET:
How confident was Vindman he would win tonight? He already planned a fundraising event August 23 in swanky Nantucket, of all places (that’s in Massachusetts, not Florida).
Vindman spent 16 times more in his primary than the winner, Angie Nixon, the New York Times reports.
Ouch.
UPDATE 8:51 p.m. ET:
Ryan Elijah’s victory over scandal-plagued Rep. Cory Mills is not a surprise, although his double-digit win is impressive. Elijah garnered 47 percent to Mills’ 34.3 with 93 percent of the vote in.
Elijah will be the favorite to keep the 7th district Republican in November.
With Mills now no longer on the ballot, the House Ethics Committee is now free to act. The committee has a practice of not acting within 60 days of an election. But that window is now closed. If Mills has won, the committee would only have a few weeks before the 60-day window before the general election, however Mills will not be on the general election ballot after his loss.
When the House returns from its long August vacation, committee action on Mills could happen quickly – despite its insistence otherwise, the committee’s work is highly politicized.
Notably, this week the committee’s chairman, Rep. Michael Guest, was reported to have violated the STOCK Act by not reporting his stock trades within the timeframe dictated by law.
UPDATE 8:37 p.m. ET:
Jim Schwartzel’s victory over Trump-endorsed Catalina Lauf and DSA candidate Angie Nixon’s statewide victory of the Alexander Vindman, who was widely considered a lock to win, show the resilience of the old maxim that all politics is local, even if weakened.
Schwartzel, who was endorsed by conservative favorite Jim Jordan and is hardly some establishment RINO, defeated the Trump-endorsed Lauf who was perceived on the ground as being a carpetbagger. Lauf grew up in Illinois, where she later ran twice for Congress in two different districts after working in Washington for the first Trump administration, and acquired an address in her Florida district around the time Donalds announced his intention to leave the seat to pursue the governor’s office.
In a crowded race featuring multiple candidates with nebulous roots in the district or even the state, the local Schwartzel won with 29.2 percent with 94 percent of the vote in (Lauf is at 21.9 percent).
Yet it must be noted that the winner failed to get a third of the vote, meaning candidates from outside the district still received around two thirds of votes cast.
Vindman’s statewide loss could certainly be a clearer indication of the maxim. Yet his unique baggage as a national irritant and general unpleasantness may have contributed to his surprise landslide loss. And Nixon’s status as a DSA candidate could have ginned up her base, as unlikely as that seemed heading into Election Day in a state like Florida.
Nixon prevailed with 55.8 percent to Vindman’s 44.2, a double digit loss with 89 percent in.
Politics is more nationalized than ever, in no small part due to the 24 hour news cycle, rise of social media, and deterioration of local media. But sometimes, folks just want to vote for one of their own.
UPDATE 8:05 p.m. ET:
Polls just closed in the panhandle leading to a flurry of calls from the AP.
Rep. Byron Donalds is the GOP nominee for governor in Florida. David Jolly is the Democrat nominee.
In a shock, DSA candidate Angie Nixon will defeat Alex Vindman for the Democrat Senate nomination. And Sen. Ashley Moody will represent Republicans on the ballot to keep the seat Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed her to last year.
UPDATE 7:55 p.m. ET:
Trump-endorsed Sydney Gruters, wife of RNC chairman Joe Gruters, will be the GOP nominee in Florida’s 16th district, AP project. This is a big notch in Trump’s belt.
Additionally, Jared Moskowitz will defeat DSA candidate Oliver Larkin. Moskowitz will have a long row to hoe in the general election in a new Trump friendly district.
And Rep. Randy Fine is also projected by AP to beat internet figure Dan Bilzerian in a wacky race that featured a video making the rounds Tuesday of Fine appearing to peak into a mailbox.
UPDATE 7:50 p.m. ET:
Remember Alexander Vindman, the Trump nemesis who spun the narrative before Congress that led to impeachment? He was projected to easily win the Democrat nomination for Senate in Florida.
Those ambitions are in trouble.
DSA candidate Angie Nixon is up almost nine points over Vindman. With 78 percent of the vote in, he is in big trouble.
Expect some serious – and justified – Trump gloating.
UPDATE 7:46 p.m. ET:
Jim Schwartzel leads Trump-endorsed Catalina Lauf in Florida’s 19th. With almost 30 percent of the vote in, he is at 28.6 percent to her 23.4 percent.
This isn’t over, but she will need a big final push to overcome his early lead.
UPDATE 7:27 p.m. ET:
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz will be the nominee in the new 20th District of Florida, the AP projects. Her candidacy upset black political power brokers who wanted the majority black district to be represented by one of their own. Unfortunately for them, the black vote was split among multiple black candidates.
Wasserman Schultz was once a rising political star in the House Democratic Caucus, even running its campaign arm, but her star has fallen over the past decade and she seems like a dinosaur now in a party that has tacked hard to the Left.
Bradley Jaye is Political Editor for Breitbart News. Follow him on X/Twitter and Instagram @BradleyAJaye.
