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(OPINION) A book published nearly three decades ago is capturing renewed attention for its forecast that a major period of national upheaval in the United States is set to reach a critical resolution this year.
In their 1997 work The Fourth Turning, historians William Strauss and Neil Howe described American history as unfolding in predictable 80-year cycles divided into four distinct phases: a High, an Awakening, an Unraveling, and finally a Crisis — the Fourth Turning.
The authors, who also popularized the term “Millennials,” anticipated that the current cycle, which began after World War II, would enter a time of profound instability starting in the mid-2000s, building toward a climax around 2020 and heading toward resolution by 2026.
The theory has gained traction among those who see parallels in recent events, from the September 11 attacks and the 2008 financial crisis to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent social and political divisions.
Supporters argue these developments fit the book’s broader pattern of deepening institutional distrust, economic strain, and national challenges during the Crisis phase.
Strauss and Howe outlined a timeline in the original text: “If the Crisis catalyst comes on schedule, around the year 2005, then the climax will be due around 2020, the resolution around 2026.” They further cautioned about the uncertainty ahead, writing: “What will America be like as it exits the Fourth Turning? History offers no guarantees.”
The book presents a stark view of potential outcomes. The authors warned that societies throughout history have faced collapse, conquest, or regression into chaos, and urged Americans not to assume their nation would be exempt.
One passage highlights this grim possibility: “As many Americans know from their own ancestral backgrounds, history provides numerous examples of societies that have been wiped off the map, ground into submission, or beaten so badly they revert to barbarism.” They added that the crisis could lead to “debasement and total ruin” far beyond anything in living memory.
The Fourth Turning theory draws on past American crises, including the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, and World War II, each marking the end of an 80-year saeculum and leading to significant societal rebuilding.
Strauss and Howe described the current era as one of eroding faith in collective institutions and the American Dream, noting growing personal optimism paired with pessimism about the nation’s and younger generations’ futures — observations many now view as prescient.
Critics point out that the predictions are broad, allowing various events to be retrofitted to the framework, and that the book did not foresee specific incidents like 9/11 or the 2008 crash. Following Strauss’s death in 2007, Neil Howe revisited the ideas in his 2023 book The Fourth Turning Is Here, adjusting the expected climax slightly later into the 2030s while affirming the ongoing cycle of instability.
End Time Headlines is a ministry founded, owned, and operated by Ricky Scaparo, established in 2010 to equip believers and inform discerning individuals about the “Signs and Seasons” of the times in which we live. Ricky authors original articles and curates news from mainstream sources, carefully selecting topics, verifying information, and utilizing artificial intelligence tools to ensure content is both timely and accurate. Every piece is personally reviewed and edited by Ricky to align with the ministry’s mission of providing a prophetic perspective on current events.