Texans cast ballots Tuesday in primary runoff elections that could steer the direction of politics in Texas – and Washington – for a generation.
The marquee race is incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) versus Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R-TX) –sporting a fresh endorsement from President Donald Trump – for the chance to take on radical Democrat nominee James Talarico in November.
Cornyn outspent Paxton in the March 3 primary with such unprecedented cash that the battle holds the ignominious record for the most expensive primary in the history of the nation. Cornyn and his allies spent over $100 million on his behalf, with Paxton and his allies spending somewhere between $4 and 6 million.
Yet Cornyn, a sitting U.S. Senator, fell eight points shy of hitting 50 percent, an embarrassment for a four-term Senator who once served as the second-ranking Senate Republican behind only his mentor, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and who finished second in December 2024 in his bid to replace McConnell.
He only received about a point and a half more of the primary votes than Paxton, with Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) receiving about 13 percent.
Trump did not endorse in the primary. Yet within about a day of votes being counted, the president posted on Truth Social that he would make an endorsement in the runoff and ask the candidate not receiving his endorsement to drop out, avoiding an expensive primary.
The conventional wisdom in Washington was Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) had won out, convincing Trump that Cornyn’s small plurality in the primary was reason to back the establishment-backed Cornyn.
Political lackeys for Thune and Cornyn openly gloated.
But just a day later, Paxton pulled a rabbit out of his hat. In a brilliant political masterstroke that could change the trajectory of the Republican Party, the AG pledged to consider dropping out of the race if Cornyn could shepherd the SAVE America Act through the Senate to passage.
That legislation, a favorite of Trump and overwhelmingly favored by not only Republicans but Independents and Democrat voters, had stalled in the Republican-led Senate, with establishment Senators like Cornyn giving lip service to the bill yet doing little to force the bill through.
The MAGA grassroots in Texas and beyond exploded. Trump’s promised endorsement did not come.
Until 75 days later.
With polling showing Paxton building a growing lead over the hapless Cornyn, Trump endorsed Paxton on May 19. The endorsement sent shockwaves throughout Washington. The president had revealed just hours earlier, to an inquiry from Breitbart News Washington Correspondent Nick Gilbertson, he would be endorsing in the race.
The establishment assumed, or hoped, their Texas lifeline had arrived.
It was not to be.
Republican Senators fumed to the Capitol press corps as they assembled at a weekly conference lunch. Shortly after, they ended progress on Trump’s border funding package, choosing to go on early vacation rather than meet Trump’s June 1 deadline.
Just hours later, responding to a question from Breitbart’s Gilbertson on if Trump’s endorsement was a message not only to Republican Senators but MAGA-aligned potential candidates considering primary challenges in 2028, Vice President JD Vance made clear that Trump’s endorsement was a message to Republicans who talked a big game but weren’t with the president when he most needs them.
“I’ve known John Cornyn for a long time, but unfortunately, you know, when it really counted, Ken Paxton was there for the country, was there for the president, and that’s why he ultimately earned the president’s endorsement,” Vance said, adding:
I think one of the things we’ve seen in the Republican Party, while I can’t say that all of our representatives are perfect or all of our senators are perfect, we have seen a much better crop of talent come into Washington since Donald Trump has been the leader of the party, and the leader of the movement. I do think we’re going to continue to see that happen, but I think the message that people should take from this is, fundamentally, you have got to serve the people who sent you. If you don’t do that, you’re going to find yourself out of step with voters, or out of step with the President of the United States, and that’s not a good place to be politically.
While petulant Republican Senators might block Trump’s agenda the rest of the year, a Paxton victory could firmly set the party on a new path in the Senate, which has been slower to change personnel and ideology in the age of Trump than the House.
Some Senators could fall in line rather than risking a Trump-backed challenger. Others might choose to forego reelection bids.
Regardless, Trump’s Paxton endorsement, with all the inevitable fallout, represents a flexing of his presidential muscle not yet seen in Trump’s second term.
Tuesday, Trump’s flex could pay off. But this is Texas, and anything is possible.
Besides the Senate races, several House primary runoffs taking place in Texas have garnered attention, with new district lines – also forced through by the President – limiting Democrat opportunities for competitiveness.
Democrat Reps. Al Green and Christian Menefee face off after finishing within a couple points in the primary. Former Rep. Colin Allred faces his replacement, Rep. Julie Johnson, after Allred stepped away from his Senate bid.
Polls close at 8:00 p.m. ET in most of the state, with polls in El Paso in the westernmost tip of the state (in Mountain Time) closing at 9 p.m. ET.
This story will be updated throughout the evening.
UPDATE 9:04 p.m. ET:
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican Senate primary runoff.
The Associated Press called the race within a minute of polls closing.
UPDATE 9:00 p.m. ET:
Polls across Texas are now closed, with the 7 o’clock hour arriving in El Paso, Texas.
Fifty-six percent of votes are in in the Republican Senate runoff. Paxton is ahead with 62.5 percent.
Expect prognosticators to begin calling this race any moment now.
UPDATE 8:55 p.m. ET:
The NRSC statement does not name Paxton – polls are still open, after all – and is attributed to a regional press secretary, not Thune or NRSC Chair Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC).
Thune and Scott presumably must speak about their party’s nominee at some point. But they’ll also be pressured to answer why they funneled tens of millions of dollars into a losing candidate, money that bloodied their eventual nominee and, by conventional understanding of politics, will make the Republicans’ chance of keeping the seat more difficult, or at least more expensive.
UPDATE 8:49 p.m. ET:
Cornyn has endlessly made the claim, echoed by Thune and the NRSC, is that Paxton is unelectable. The trio and the various groups they command used that claim to justify spending well into nine figures for Cornyn, valuable resources that Paxton and his allies argue could have been better spent in battleground states.
But as most of the polls have closed and Paxton’s runoff victory is inevitable, the NRSC is showing they no longer believe that – or perhaps never did.
“A state President Trump won by nearly 14 points isn’t going to elect James Talarico — a radical leftist who thinks God is nonbinary and that Texas should be a welcome mat for illegals,” an NRSC communications staffer tweeted at 8:39pm ET. “He is the most dangerous flank of the far left. Texas isn’t swapping brisket for open borders.”
UPDATE 8:40 p.m. ET:
Fifty-two percent of the expected vote is in and Paxton has actually gained strength. He sits at 63 percent to Cornyn’s 37 percent. Cornyn’s practical chances of victory are now only hypothetical. Monumental.
UPDATE 8:36 p.m. ET:
How confident are some Washington power players that Paxton will win?
Club for Growth is jumping on the Paxton bandwagon, and they have an ad ready to go up tomorrow attacking Talarico. This was reported tonight before all the polls even closed.
UPDATE 8:31 p.m. ET:
In the Democrat runoff for the 18th Congressional District, Menefee, who won a special election in January to replace the deceased Rep. Sylvester Turner in a district whose lines shifted significantly, is trending towards victory over Al Green, who is best known for his signature long hair and cane and dogged focus on calling for Trump’s impeachment, even at inopportune times.
Green was censured by the House in 2025 in a bipartisan vote after he was expelled from Trump’s address to Congress.
UPDATE 8:25 p.m. ET:
With only 33.3 percent of the expected vote in, Paxton is up 62.2 percent to Cornyn’s 37.8 percent. Those margins are unlikely to hold, but anything approaching those numbers would represent a historic victory over a Senate incumbent for Paxton.
UPDATE 8:20 p.m. ET:
There are signs this could be an early night in the Senate runoff, with early results showing Paxton preparing for a romp.
“In March, Paxton got 9,063 EV in Brazoria county. Cornyn got 8,684. Tonight, Paxton has 9,802. Cornyn has only 4,076,” Henry Olsen posted.
“That type of shift on the margin is occurring EVERYWHERE.”
UPDATE 8:12 p.m. ET
Another race to watch tonight is the Democratic primary in the 35th Congressional District, where sex therapist Maureen Galindo finished first in March just ahead of Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia.
Galindo is under fire for an Instagram post in which she said she wished to turn ICE detention centers “into a prison for American Zionists” and “a castration processing center for pedophiles which will probably be most of the Zionists.”
Democrats have distanced themselves from Galindo, who has raised and spent little money on her own but has been backed by Lead Left PAC, which was formed in May and has not yet revealed its donors. Democrats have accused the group of being financed by Republicans.
The new district lines encompass a region that would have gone for Trump by about 10 points.
Bradley Jaye is Political Editor for Breitbart News. Follow him on X/Twitter and Instagram @BradleyAJaye.
