In the days ahead, the direction of Operation Epic Fury will become unmistakable in the targets the United States and Israel choose to strike.
The U.S.-Israeli air campaign has already delivered historic results. Our losses to enemy fire have been dramatically lower than in past major operations — far below the roughly one aircraft per day suffered in the run-up to Desert Storm. Precision strikes combined with air superiority have severely damaged Iran’s missile forces, air defenses, and naval capabilities.
The extraordinary rescue of the downed F-15E pilot and weapons systems officer — the latter extracted on Easter Sunday after going missing on Good Friday — further showcased unmatched special operations skill and real-time intelligence fusion, with operators inserted near Isfahan and a small team sortieing to a 7,000-foot ridge to recover the injured colonel under enemy pressure.
These successes set the stage for the critical phase now unfolding.
President Donald Trump’s remarks on Monday included both talks of negotiations and a threat to hit dual-use infrastructure, but the clearest indicators will be the strikes themselves in the coming hours and days.
For America and its allies, the central goals remain eliminating Iran’s nuclear and missile threat, neutralizing its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, and cutting off support for its terror proxies — Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. These elements have long formed the regime’s capacity to destabilize the region and threaten global energy security.
Strait of Hormuz (Photo by Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2025)
Iran’s center of gravity is more existential: the survival of the revolutionary regime itself.
Animated by a messianic death cult ideology that seeks to hasten the end times and the return of the 12th Hidden Imam — the Mahdi — the regime views its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium as vital insurance for that apocalyptic mission.
But preserving custody of that material increasingly forces a confrontation with the regime’s very existence, even if full regime change has not been the publicly stated goal.
Watch the target sets carefully.
If strikes concentrate on tactical assets around the Strait of Hormuz — anti-ship missiles, coastal batteries, fast-attack craft, and related naval infrastructure — the immediate priority will be reopening vital shipping lanes and safeguarding global oil flows. This approach would focus on restoring freedom of navigation while building on gains already achieved. But, as operations against the Houthis to safeguard the Red Sea showed, it’s not easy.
But targeting dual-use infrastructure, such as bridges, power plants, and logistics nodes, would indicate sustained pressure on the regime’s ability to move forces and maintain domestic control. Such targets squeeze the theocrats’ sustainment without committing to large-scale ground operations, potentially accelerating internal strains on a population long weary of repression.
The most telling sign, however, would be systematic attacks on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij militia leadership, command nodes, and control networks. If the campaign pivots decisively in this direction, it will mark the abandonment of meaningful negotiation and a clear intent to drive this terror regime toward collapse. Air power that degrades the mullahs’ tools of internal repression — especially amid existing domestic discontent — could burst open the door for rapid regime collapse.
Only the last option — going after the regime — would likely lead to the United States recovering Iran’s enriched uranium.
Ultimately, the regime faces a binary choice: recognize the futility of defiance or cling to its apocalyptic ideology at ever greater cost. The Iranian people, long oppressed by a corrupt theocracy, could prove decisive once the regime’s instruments of control are sufficiently shattered.
Operation Epic Fury has already reshaped the battlefield in America’s favor. The strategic decisions made now — guided by a clear grasp of centers of gravity as Carl von Clausewitz described them, the hub of all power and movement — will determine whether this campaign delivers not just tactical success but lasting victory: a Middle East more secure, global commerce protected, and a dangerous regime consigned to history’s garbage pile.
What unfolds in the coming days will turn on those target choices and the intent behind them.
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Chuck DeVore is the Chief National Initiatives Officer at the Texas Public Policy Foundation.