President Donald Trump’s favorability ratings fell in April, data from the latest I&I/TIPP Poll indicate. Is the drop possibly a short-term casualty of the month-long war with Iran that has brought higher oil prices and increased economic uncertainty to many Americans? Or is it just a one-off statistical blip?
The national online poll was taken by 1,464 adults from Mar. 31 to April 2, and has a margin of error of +/-2.7 percentage points.
Trump suffered a clear drop in favorability among voters, with 39% saying their opinion of the second-term president was favorable, while a majority of 53% called their opinion “unfavorable.” Of the remainder, 4% said they weren’t familiar enough to say, and 3% were not sure.
That compares to March’s poll in which Trump garnered 42% favorable readings and 49% unfavorable. Put another way, Trump’s net overall favorability rating in March was -7%, but in April fell to -14%, a significant swing in sentiment.
With the Iran war, which began on Feb. 28, now in full swing for more than a month, Trump has suffered most with non-Republican voting blocs: Democrats (9% favorable, 85% unfavorable) and independents and third-party members (62% unfavorable, 28% favorable).
So Trump’s favorability has definitely suffered during the war, as brief as it has been so far.
But how do Americans view how he’s doing the actual job of president when it comes to specific issues?
Each month, we ask voters: “In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?”
In April, Trump’s approval ratings slipped, but not as much as his favorability ratings. Overall, 39% approved of the job Trump is doing, while 53% disapproved. By comparison, in March, 40% approved, while 51% disapproved.
As ever, political leanings largely determine approval or disapproval.
Among Democrats, for instance, just 9% approved of Trump, while 87% disapproved. Indie voters were marginally more favorable: 30% approved, 59% disapproved. Republicans were much more supportive, with 76% approval and 16% disapproval.
But here’s the surprise: Trump actually improved among indie voters, while weakening with his GOP supporters. In March, Trump’s approval with indie voters was 27%, three points lower than April’s number, and 61% disapproval, two points higher than in April.
So Trump relied on independent voters to sustain his favorability ratings in early April, while favorability ratings for both Dems and Republicans decreased (though, of course, for Republicans, from a much higher plateau than either the Dems or independents).
Each month, I&I/TIPP also poses this question: “How would you describe the leadership that President Trump is providing for the country?”
Overall, Trump’s doing slightly weaker in April with 54% calling his leadership either “very strong” (24%), “strong” (17%), or “moderate” (13%). But 44% called his leadership either “weak” (10%) or “very weak” (34%).
For comparison, in March, 55% described his leadership as either “very strong” (26%), “strong” (15%), or “moderate” (14%). But 41% called his leadership either “weak” (10%) or “very weak” (31%).
(Below: The TIPP Presidential Leadership Index measures public sentiment over time by combining three components: favorability, job approval, and presidential leadership. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with readings above 50 indicating optimism and below 50 signaling pessimism. In April, the overall index stood at 44.0 (Mar=46.0, Feb=45.6, Jan=46.3), with Republicans most optimistic at 81.5 (Mar=83.8, Feb=81.1, Jan=82.9), Democrats least at 12.2 (Mar=14.9, Feb=13.1, Jan=16.3), and independents in between at 35.1 (Mar=34.9, Feb=41.4, Jan=37.7).
As in previous months, we also asked respondents to assign grades A, B, C, D, or F to the president for his handling of 16 separate national and international issues and for the overall job he’s doing.
Trump received 37% As and Bs for his “overall performance as president,” a bit below March’s 38%.
But, as is almost always the case, the monthly number reflects widely differing opinions among the various U.S. political factions.
In April, just 8% of Democrats gave Trump the higher grades, down from 12% in March, while 27% of the independents gave him top marks, up from 21%. Republicans hit 71% in April, up ten percentage points from a month earlier.
Among the 16 issues in the poll, Trump got highest scores for “Handling immigration and border security” (44%), “Handling violence and crime in the country” (38%), “Restoring America’s core values” (36%), and “Handling energy policy,” “Managing the federal government effectively,” and “Handling the U.S.-Iran conflict,” all at 35%.
Lowest scores, in ascending order, went to “Handling inflation and the cost of living” (28%), “Handling healthcare” (30%), “Handling the Russia-Ukraine war” and “Handling the economy” (both 31%), and “Handling education” and “Handling China” (both 32%).
As is always the case, a cluster of issues lies somewhere between the highs and lows.
As reported Monday, the I&I/TIPP Poll also asked: “Do you support or oppose the United States military action against Iran?”
The answer was a clean split: 45% said they either support it “strongly” (25%) or “somewhat” (21%), while 45% said they opposed it either “strongly” (28%) or “somewhat” (16%).
Among Republicans, 77% support the war, while 16% oppose it. Democrats, meanwhile, oppose it by 70%, while only 20% support it. Independents split the difference at 37% support, 53% oppose.
This is mentioned because the media have been filled with stories of how the Iran war is hurting Trump with the public. And certainly, for some — including a small group of MAGA adherents — the Iran war was unexpected and unwanted.
But did it crater Trump’s ratings? Probably not.
For the first time in April, we asked those taking the poll to grade Trump’s “handling (of) the U.S.-Iran conflict.” The 35% of “A” and “B” grades given was the fourth-highest among the issues tested.
With 45% of all Americans in the poll pledging support for Trump’s Iran policy, it seems unlikely that Iran has seriously damaged Trump.
So it seems more likely that Trump is taking a hit for how people perceive the economy. This month’s 31% As and Bs for the economy were five percentage points less than in March. And the lowest score of all, 28% in April, was handed out for “Handling inflation and the cost of living,” a major concern for average Americans.
As the I&I/TIPP Poll suggests, it’s probably not the Iran conflict that deflated Trump’s presidential ratings in April, but rather a general concern about the economy, jobs, and inflation that has dented Trump’s popularity. Is this a trend, or a one-month drop? May’s I&I/TIPP Poll will tell.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.