Iran’s regime may be ready to strike a deal with Trump

Iran’s regime may be ready to strike a deal with Trump

Student-led protests have taken place in Iran this weekend, coinciding with the start of the new university term and the 40th day of mourning for many of the thousands of people killed by security forces in early January.

Pro-and anti-regime activists protested at five universities in Tehran on Saturday, in some instances facing off against each other.

At the Ferdowsi University in Mashhad, Iran’s second city and birthplace of Ayatollah Khamenei, video shows a large gathering of anti-regime protestors chanting “so much crime all these years” and “death to this rule”.

These demonstrations are nowhere near the scale of the protests six weeks ago which saw uprisings in towns and cities across all Iran’s 31 provinces, but it is brave to be coming out at all given the authorities’ crackdown in January.

The numbers killed then are still unclear, but the US-based Human Rights Activists Agency (HRANA) says they have verified at least 7,015 fatalities and have thousands more cases under review.

The government has admitted to 3,117 deaths including around 200 security personnel. Donald Trump has said he believes 32,000 people were killed.

The 40th day is an important moment in the mourning process in Iran. During the revolution in 1979, 40th day commemorations became flashpoints for fresh protest, sparking renewed crackdowns and killings and further cycles of unrest. As a result, the Iranian regime has been wary of allowing mourners to gather for commemorative rituals.

University students clash with government security forces

Last week, clashes around the 40th day took place in Abdanan, a city near the border with Iraq. Videos show people chanting “death to Khamenei” as they remembered Alireza Seydi, a 16-year-old boy killed on January 8th. In another video from the city, the sound of gunfire echoes across the valley.

It is difficult to tell what exactly the response of the authorities has been to this latest unrest. Internet is back but it is patchy.

On Tuesday, the Ayatollah gave a speech saying some of those who took part in the January protests had been “naive and inexperienced” and were deceived by the rioters, but that they were still “part of us, they were our children”.

Diana Magnay provides analysis from Tel Aviv

Given the US military build-up across the Middle East, the Iranian authorities appear not to want to provoke Donald Trump by being heavy-handed with protesters – but, instead, to focus minds on further negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme which they say could take place next week.

Read more:
How Iran might be preparing for a potential US strike
UK has not agreed to let US strike Iran from British bases

They are signalling that they are prepared to work towards a deal but that they stand ready to fight should the US strike.

Now it is up to Donald Trump to decide whether and how long he is prepared to wait for a deal, and what he does if he fails to get one.

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