The latest data show that of the 10 counties with the biggest gains in population, only one was deep blue. Trump won the rest in each of the three past presidential elections. (See the chart below.)
The 10 counties with the biggest loss of population from 2020 to 2025 were all heavily Democratic — they voted for Hillary Clinton, Biden, and Harris.
Even if you go further down the list, the pattern remains.
Of the 50 counties with the biggest net gain of population, all but four voted for Trump in the past three elections. Of the 50 counties with the biggest losses due to net migration, all but five are solid blue.
Other findings:
- Blue counties lost population even in states that had big gains. The five Florida counties where Trump lost in his three election bids lost 150,000 people due to net migration over the past five years. This is a state that saw an overall net gain of 890,000.
- The three heavily Democratic counties in Tennessee lost more than 81,000 people, while the state overall gained 293,000.
- Only five counties in Utah lost population from 2020 to 2025, and three of them voted for both Biden and Harris.
- At the other end of the spectrum, California lost almost 1.7 million people to net migration. But the few counties that consistently voted for Trump saw a slight gain of 3,024.
- New Jersey’s seven solidly pro-Trump counties gained almost 25,000 people during the years that solidly Democratic counties lost more than 214,000.
- Virginia’s blue counties lost nearly 160,000 to net migration, while its solidly red ones gained more than 122,000
We keep hearing how unpopular Trump and his policies are. (Our latest I&I/TIPP poll shows that just 39% have a favorable opinion of the president — See “Trump’s Popularity Took A Hit In April — Is Iran War Reason Why, Or Something Else?“) While that might be what people tell pollsters, their own actions – picking up and moving to a new county or a different state – speak much louder.
Millions of Americans would rather live among Trump supporters than those voting for the likes of Kamala Harris.
— Written by the I&I Editorial Board
Editor’s Note: To see the complete data set, click here.
I & I Editorial Board
The Issues and Insights Editorial Board has decades of experience in journalism, commentary and public policy.