Trump’s Voters Are Getting Bearish on the Economy
The mood on the political right in America has dimmed fast in the early weeks of the war with Iran. Republicans, Trump voters, conservatives, and even self-identified MAGA supporters have grown markedly less optimistic about the economy in just the past two months.
The latest polling for The Economist from YouGov found that nearly 59 percent of American adults say the economy is getting worse, the highest share since October of 2023 and up by nine percentage points since as recently as January. The share saying the economy is getting better sank to 16 percent, down from 25 percent in January. This is the lowest share since Trump took office.
Troublingly, the decline was driven by worsening economic sentiment among Republicans and Trump voters. In early January, 57 percent of Republicans said the economy was improving, and 14 percent said it was declining. In the most recent poll, taken between March 13 and 16, just 37 percent say the economy is improving, and 24 percent say it is getting worse.
In January, 57 percent of Trump voters said the economy was getting better. Now just 41 percent do. Among conservatives, the share saying the economy is getting better has declined from 59 percent to 40 percent.
It’s become trendy for pollsters to survey a category they call “MAGA supporters.” YouGov’s polls for The Economist began doing this in February. In the poll taken between February 6 and 9, 63 percent of MAGA supporters said the economy was getting better. In the latest poll, it has dropped to 47 percent.
In other words, the recent decline is not driven by Trump Derangement Syndrome or partisanship. Democrats still overwhelmingly think the economy is headed to Hell and independents remain uneasy. But Trump’s economy no longer commands the optimism of a majority of his own voters, his supporters, Republicans, or self-described conservatives.
The New Pessimism Cuts Across Age and Class Lines
Views of the economy got worse among older Americans who used to be far more likely to think things were improving than younger Americans. Among adults over 65, the share saying the economy is improving fell from 33 percent in January to 18 percent in March. Among the 45 to 64 year olds, the optimist share has declined from 30 percent to 19 percent. For those between 30 and 44, it’s fallen from 22 percent to 15 percent. Younger voters haven’t changed their opinion, but only 11 percent of them thought the economy was improving anyway.
While the share of black and Hispanic Americans who say things are improving remains dismal—around six percent and 16 percent respectively—the share of white Americans who see things getting better has plunged. In January, 31 percent of whites said the economy was improving. Now just 19 percent do.
The educational divide over the economy has vanished—but only because Americans without college degrees are no longer more optimistic than those with a college degree. In the February poll, 23 percent of adults without a college degree said the economy was getting better. Among college grads, 18 percent did. Now just 16 percent say the economy is getting better, regardless of whether or not they graduated from college.
The economy has lost optimists among both men and women. In January, 30 percent of men and 15 percent of women had a positive view of the direction of the economy. Now that’s down to 21 percent among men and 12 percent among women.
It Is Not Personal…Yet
This shift toward pessimism about the direction of the economy has not been driven by Americans’ perceptions of their personal finances. In February, 25 percent of Republicans, 26 percent of MAGA, 24 percent of conservatives, and 27 percent of Trump voters said they were better off than they were a year ago. Today, 23 percent of Republicans, 31 percent of MAGA, 25 percent of conservatives, and 26 percent of Trump voters say they are better off.
Similarly, the share of people on the right saying they expect their own finances to be better a year from now has not moved much. In February, the shares saying they expected to be better off in year were 39 percent for Republicans, 46 percent for MAGA, 39 percent for conservatives, and 42 percent for Trump voters. Now, they are 37 percent for Republicans, 46 percent for MAGA, 41 percent for conservatives, and 39 percent for Trump voters.
And when these folks are asked about the state of the economy—how it is now, rather than the trend—they remain relatively positive. In February, while just 24 percent of all American adults said the state of the economy was good or excellent, right-leaning Americans were far more positive. Forty-seven percent of Republicans chose good or excellent, as did 56 percent of MAGA, 44 percent of conservatives, and 50 percent of Trump voters. In the March survey, the numbers were 45 percent of Republicans, 54 percent of MAGA, 43 percent of conservatives, and 48 percent of Trump voters.
For now, the damage is to the sense of the economy’s trend, not personal experience or personal expectations. That’s a consolation, but probably one with a short shelf life if the Iran war’s oil price hike persists long enough to become a serious drag on economic growth.