Americans have lived with the threat of nuclear war for more than seven decades, yet the deadly weapons get little serious attention outside of wonky policy circles. But, as a major U.S.-Russia nuclear weapons agreement expires and nuclear talks with Iran continue, most Americans show real concern about the threat of nuclear war, the latest I&I/TIPP poll shows.
For the February poll, I&I/TIPP asked four questions related to the nuclear threat. The first asked: “How concerned are you about the risk of nuclear conflict involving the United States, Russia, or China?”
By 2-to-1, or 62% to 31%, Americans said they were either “very concerned” (27%) or “somewhat concerned” (35%) about nuclear conflict, while 20% responded they were “not very concerned” and 11% said they were “not concerned at all.” Another 7% were not sure.
While a majority of all three political identities agree nuclear war’s a threat, there are some differences. Democrats are most worried, with 75% calling themselves concerned, and just 19% not concerned. Some 54% of Republicans expressed concern, while a hefty 42% said they weren’t concerned. Independents broke basically along the overall average: 60% concerned, 32% not concerned.
Taking the topic a step further, I&I/TIPP asked: “Which country poses the greater nuclear threat to the United States today?” Those answering were given three possible responses: Russia (41%), China (34%), and “not sure” (25%).
Again, politics determined to a large extent who one considered the nuclear bogeyman. Among Democrats, 45% selected Russia, while just 30% China. Independents and third-party members, likewise, picked Russia (38%) over China (33%), a narrower margin.
But Republicans were split down the middle: 40% Russia, 40% China.
A follow-on question asked the best way to reduce the threat of nuclear war: “Which approach is more likely to prevent a nuclear conflict involving major powers like China and Russia?”
Of the answers offered, “Renewing or expanding nuclear arms control agreements” garnered 38% support, with “Building stronger nuclear deterrence through military strength” not far beyond at 35%.
And the “not sure” response was again large: 27%.
But political ideology strongly influenced responses, with 46% of self-described conservatives preferring “military strength” versus 34% picking “arms control agreements.” Meanwhile, 35% of moderates opted for “military strength,” while 33% chose “arms control agreements.”
Liberals showed the largest difference: 56% favored “arms control agreements” versus 23% preferring “military strength.”
Finally, those taking the poll were asked: “Which political party do you trust more to handle nuclear weapons and nuclear conflict involving China and Russia responsibly?”
The responses were split evenly, with 40% saying the Republicans and 40% saying the Democrats.
Dems and Republicans were statistical mirror images of one another: 84% of Democrats preferred their own party; 84% of Republicans preferred their own party.
Among independents, 34% preferred Democrats, while 31% preferred Republicans to handle the nuclear issue. But a sizeable 35% weren’t sure.
Are Americans right to be afraid of nuclear war, which would be unlike anything ever experienced before? Absolutely.
As has been noted, nine countries have nuclear weapons. Three of those have, at various times, expressed extreme hostility or even hatred for the U.S.: Russia, China and North Korea.
On Feb. 5, the 2010 nuclear arms treaty between the U.S. and Russia expired and, predictably, “experts warn that no new agreement could portend a new arms race not seen since the Cold War,” USA Today admonished.
Already, nuclear saber-rattling has begun.
Just last week, Vladimir Solovyov, a TV mouthpiece for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, wondered aloud why Russia shouldn’t nuke Elon Musk’s Starlink internet satellites in space, after the billionaire entrepreneur shut down the system from Russian military use.
The casual use of nuclear weapons, especially in space, could be a trigger for global nuclear war — World War III. And, of course, the Russia-Ukraine war remains a nuclear threat, especially if Russia decides to use tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield.
Right now, President Trump and his advisers have engaged Iran’s Islamic dictatorship in talks about nuclear weapons. Trump is dead set on keeping theocratic Iran from getting a useable nuclear weapon, but is also wary of dislodging one irresponsible authoritarian regime only to see it be replaced by another.
“U.S. restarts nuclear diplomacy with Iran amid escalating threats,” as a PBS headline last week warned.
But that isn’t the only nuclear “threat.”
Consider this curious headline that popped up in recent days: “Canada has no nuclear weapons. After Trump’s Greenland threats. Should it?”
Nuclear war over Greenland? No question, nuclear anxiety is high right now. The point is, as the cliche goes, “The nuclear genie is already out of the bottle.”
Trump has shown himself to be serious about nuclear weapons, especially about keeping the weapons out of the hands of states and non-state groups that support terrorism.
The U.S. president has shown himself to be a master at playing the global power game. That’s good. Because, as the I&I/TIPP Poll shows, Americans are concerned, and want both arms control deals and a strong nuclear deterrent to deal with the threat.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.