Tensions between India and Pakistan have reached a critical point following a series of military engagements and provocative rhetoric, raising global concerns about the potential for nuclear conflict.
Pakistan’s Defence Minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, has warned that the threat of nuclear war is “clear and present,” citing India’s alleged aggressive actions as a catalyst for the escalating crisis.
This statement comes in the wake of a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir and subsequent cross-border strikes, which have pushed the two nuclear-armed neighbors to the brink of a broader conflict.
The roots of the current crisis lie in the long-standing dispute over Kashmir, a region both India and Pakistan claim in its entirety.
The situation deteriorated significantly after a terrorist attack on April 22, 2025, in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 people, mostly tourists.
India accused Pakistan of orchestrating the attack, a claim Islamabad vehemently denies. In response, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi granted the military “complete operational freedom,” leading to airstrikes on Pakistani air defense systems and other targets on May 7, 2025.
Pakistan retaliated, targeting Indian military installations with drones and missiles, though India claims these attacks were neutralized without casualties.
The tit-for-tat strikes have continued, with both sides reporting drone incursions and missile attacks.
On May 8, 2025, India’s Ministry of Defense reported that Pakistani drones and missiles targeted military stations in Jammu, Pathankot, and Udhampur, while Pakistan accused India of striking civilian targets, including a mosque in Muzaffarabad, Pakistan-administered Kashmir, killing 26 civilians.
These conflicting narratives have fueled mutual distrust and heightened the risk of miscalculation.
Pakistan’s Defence Minister Asif has stated that the country would only resort to nuclear weapons if faced with a “direct threat to our existence.”
However, his assertion that a nuclear war could break out “at any time” if India imposes an all-out war has sent shockwaves through the international community.
Posts on X reflect similar concerns, with some users interpreting Asif’s statements as a plea for international intervention to prevent escalation.
One post translated his remarks as an admission of Pakistan’s vulnerability, stating, “Pls save us. Salwar phatne wali hai. China has also deserted us.”
Nuclear experts have weighed in on the gravity of the situation. Hans Kristensen, a nuclear expert cited by The Economic Times, noted that while the current hostilities do not directly threaten nuclear escalation, strikes on significant targets could increase the risk.
The presence of nuclear arsenals on both sides—India with an estimated 150 warheads and Pakistan with around 165—adds a layer of complexity to any military engagement.
Scientific American highlighted the potential global consequences, warning that a nuclear exchange could disrupt food supplies and cause widespread climate change.
The international community has responded with urgency to the escalating crisis. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has engaged with both Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, urging “immediate de-escalation.”
The United Nations, through Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, has offered mediation to prevent a confrontation with “tragic consequences.”
Saudi Arabia’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Adel al-Jubeir, made a surprise visit to Islamabad on May 9, 2025, in a potential bid to calm tensions.
The Group of Seven (G7) nations issued a statement condemning the Pahalgam attack and calling for both sides to exercise “maximum restraint” and engage in direct dialogue.
Despite these efforts, diplomatic progress remains elusive. India and Pakistan have scaled back diplomatic engagement, suspended bilateral treaties, and expelled each other’s citizens, signaling a deep freeze in relations.
The closure of 24 Indian airports, including those in Jammu and Srinagar, until May 15, 2025, and reports of blackouts and heavy artillery fire along the Line of Control (LoC) underscore the severity of the situation.
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